I know unemployment is a lagging indicator, but I think we're bouncing about at the bottom of this recession rather than out of the woods yet.It will only take one nasty surprise (sovereign default in Eastern Europe, another dodgy bank or hedge fund...) and in my view we will have another lurch downwards, given confidence is fragile at best.
Interesting FT headline today:
"Rise in UK unemployment eases"
"The number of people unemployed in the UK rose by 232,000 to 2.26m in the three months to April, up to 7.2 per cent, after a slight moderation in the rate of increase boosted hopes the rate of deterioration in the labour market is slowing down"
When the best part of a quarter of a million people (the population of a city the size of Derby) have lost their jobs in the last three months, there's not much to cheer about. The "run rate" of unemployment is now almost 1 million per annum and I'm concerned about the social and public order implications.
3 comments:
I'm wondering that as everything is faster these days whether the financial crisis/recovery will be faster than predicted. The banks seem to be in recovery already and eager to pay back the government so they can get on with business as usual....
My concern is that while the banks get back to business as usual the cost on the public will be hard to bear. Firstly in jobs and then for many years of public sector austerity.
The division in society seems to be getting wider - the financial sector gets back to business as usual whilst the public sector suffers cut backs to pay for the problems caused by the banking sector. Like you I am worried about the consequences of this.
For me the crises that have occurred in finance and government (expenses) came to early - in another few years technology and culture would have things available that could provide non mediated alternatives e.g. Gov 2.0 and economy 2.0.
There are indications of the unrest that might grow if employment and economic prospects decline.
The comment from the wildcat strikers at the Lindsey Total refinery construction revealed the mood of frustration. They were frustrated that the government looked after itself with expenses and the bankers but didn't care about "British jobs for British workers"
The frustration is with the divide that is present in society - the executives with high pay & power and the general worker who bears the brunt of problems.
Divisions like this in society are a recipe for unrest.
A link to the Oil refinery news is below
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2009/jun/21/lindsey-refinery-strikes
Is Martin the only one who left you a comment? I felt bad, so I am leaving you one as well. even though I have not got anything clever to add. still...
Nailya
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